DISINFO: The West is likely behind the recent escalation between Azerbaijan and Armenia
SUMMARY
A collision of two nationalist projects is one interpretation of the recent escalation of tensions between Azerbaijan and Armenia. The other likely reason is the activities of the West which benefits from instability in the vicinity of Russia. Given that Russia is focused on the special military operation in Ukraine, its control over processes in the Caucasus weakened.
RESPONSE
Pro-Kremlin disinformation narrative about Russia as the ultimate target of international events, accusing the West of having an anti-Russian agenda in the Caucasus. The claim is also consistent with recurring pro-Kremlin disinformation narratives about the belligerent West trying to encircle Russia, separate and destabilise post-Soviet (CIS) countries and isolate Russia.
Contrary to the claim, the EU has a strong interest in a politically stable and economically prosperous Southern Caucasus, but the regional context is not easy. The EU continues to express its support to efforts towards the promotion of peace in South Caucasus, including through the EU Special Representative for the South Caucasus and the crisis in Georgia. To cautiously create a base for confidence-building and dialogue in the fresh post-war environment the EU has come up with a number of programmes (e.g. EU4Peace, EU4Dialogue, EU4Culture).
The decision to deploy the EU monitors on the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan was made after the September 2022 escalation. The EU (European Council) agreed to establish a civilian European Union Mission in Armenia under the Common Security and Defence Policy. The objective of the Mission is to contribute to stability in the border areas of Armenia, building confidence on the ground, and ensure an environment conducive to normalisation efforts between Armenia and Azerbaijan supported by the EU.
Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has further altered the power balance in the region, creating a dangerous security vacuum and intensifying the need for renewed international mediation toward a comprehensive political settlement. The EU has meanwhile taken on a prominent mediation role in the negotiations. And the US stated that it is ready to engage bilaterally, with like-minded partners, to facilitate dialogue between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
See similar disinfo cases in our database: Brussels wants to squeeze Russia out of the Caucasus;The EU and the OSCE are in the Caucasus to further drive a wedge in relations between the CSTO members; the West aims to oust Russia of Transcaucasia.