DISINFO: Ukraine will fall into pieces without gas transit fees
SUMMARY
This [the stop of Russian gas transit] is the beginning of the end of the Ukrainian economy, and consequently, [means] the disintegration of the country.
RESPONSE
The disinformation claim above is part of a narrative in connection with the Kremlin's efforts to stop transiting Russian gas to Europe through Ukrainian pipelines, bypassing Ukraine as a transit country.
On 1 October 2021, the Ukrainian government called on the United States and Germany to impose sanctions on Russia's Gazprom, which it accused of using energy as a weapon after the Russian energy company implemented a transit deal with Hungary that deprives Kyiv of gas supplies.
Under the terms of a long-term supply deal with Hungary, Russia will no longer ship its gas to Hungary via Ukraine but will send it via Serbia and Austria instead. That deprives Ukraine of transit revenues and also means it can no longer import reverse flow gas via Hungary, which Kyiv has been doing since 2015 as a way of not buying gas directly from Russia. Gazprom suspended the transit of natural gas to Ukraine days after the Russian state-controlled gas giant signed a long-term contract with Budapest.
While the current developments over Russian-Ukrainian energy relations have undoubtedly put Kyiv at a disadvantage, both in terms of energy market status and the country's standing in the Donbas War, there is no indication or evidence to suggest that a potential stop of Russian gas flows will tear the country apart. Economic events do not necessarily lead to political happenings.
Pushing for theories alleging the disintegration of Ukraine is a frequent element of pro-Kremlin disinformation. Explore a similar case here claiming that "Ukraine will fall into quasi-states" and another saying that "the US wants to break Ukraine into pieces."