Another reminder: A hundred ways of saying NO to peace

The U.S. proposal for a 30 days ceasefire in Russia’s war against Ukraine was accepted by Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy. Then it got the usual treatment in Moscow: a cacophony of allusions and contradicting views were voiced by different state representatives to create uncertainty and obfuscate Russia’s intentions. Then, amidst this uncertainty rife with anticipation, Putin himself chimed in only after a few days of deliberate delay.

Unsurprisingly, his words were opaque and non-committal, expressing seeming ‘openness to the idea’ but reserving space for eventual denial by alluding to unspecified ‘Russia’s demands’. Another sign of an attempt to hedge their bets – Putin’s comments came not in direct response to the US proposal, but were rather wrapped into the press conference with Belarus dictator Lukashenka.

First, the Kremlin Security Advisor Ushakov gave the proposal a cold reception and Spokesperson Peskov played for time suggesting more information was needed. There is not yet a lot of information of U.S. Special Envoy Witkoff’s meeting with Putin, but some hints of messages: overtures to ‘cautions optimism’ while digging in on unspecified conditions [read: demands] attached.

This is the Kremlin’s playbook to negotiations on full display – leave space to shift the blame for possible breakdown of talks and always portray Moscow as the most constructive party: the question was put wrong, the proposal is incomplete. Need to look at other aspects, etc. etc. etc.

But it does not take an expert in Kremlinology to understand the real meaning of Putin’s response and it’s a clear NO.

“We need to look at the root causes”

A key formulation by Putin illustrates Russia’s true stance. So keep looking for this throughout the process: the so-called ‘root causes’ which is Kremlin shorthand for:

• Get rid of Zelenskyy and key leaders, one way or another. Install a puppet regime in Kyiv.
• Stop and derail the Euro-Atlantic integration of Ukraine; No EU membership, No NATO membership. Keep Ukraine in an unstable limbo eternally.
• Bleed out Ukraine’s armed forces. No assistance from the West.
• Surrender the occupied regions of Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk etc. to Russia.
• Eventually carve up Ukraine’s statehood, for instance, either through forced federalisation or ‘Oblastiation’ – de facto integration with Russia.

It is not so difficult to understand the sound of NO. Don’t be deceived.