Split the EU: a constant priority of the Kremlin

Russian state-controlled and pro-Kremlin outlets try to divide opponents by spreading rumours, lies, and slander while engaging troll factories, AI bots, and the like. This type of behaviour is consistent with classic psychological warfare operations. These efforts are taking up more space in the information landscape as they are made cheaper by AI and social media platforms designed to keep people glued to the screen. For the untrained eye, some Kremlin narratives could be mistaken as just ‘interesting news’ or ‘a fresh and alternative opinion’. Messages often focus on sowing division in societies between governments and people or pitting groups inside countries against each other.

Dividing across different dimensions…

Transatlantic: Moscow has worked along several lines for years to sow divisions. One has been the effort to drum up a transatlantic split with disagreements between the US and the EU. Pro-Kremlin outlets have promoted the narrative of ‘lost sovereignty’, claiming that the EU and European countries are under the full control of Washington in all important matters. Outlets often couple ‘lost sovereignty’ with ‘the elites vs. the people’, a narrative that alleges that a corrupt elite neglects true popular interests. The hope in Moscow has been to compel people across EU countries into protesting against their governments.

Now that Washington, the EU and Kyiv are discussing ways toward a just and sustainable peace in Ukraine, the Kremlin narrative is that Europe is irrelevant and should be separated from any contact with Washington. All in an effort to maintain an exclusive forum only between Russia and the US. Moscow can always adapt its narratives if required.

Inside the EU: a constant line from Moscow is to claim that ‘Brussels’ and the EU apparatus are suppressing EU Member States and national governments. We illustrated how this approach was exploited during the COVID-19 pandemic with attempts to sow division and anger about public health measures and spread disinformation about Western-made vaccines. Again, the underlining claim was that people are disenfranchised and neglected, an ideal allegation to feed populist sentiments.

Attack support to Ukraine: the Kremlin has cultivated this theme during the past three years to focus on undermining popular support for financial, humanitarian, and military aid to Ukraine with claims that supporting Ukraine is leading to economic crises and domestic poverty across the EU. Each winter period, Russia has tried to incite panic across European countries about energy shortages, electricity blackouts, industry shutdowns, and so on, promoting a myth and pretending that only Russia can save the EU from an energy collapse. The ‘imminent collapse‘ is a third underlying false but constant narrative.

… but not successful

However, this manipulation by Moscow has not proven successful. European populations have maintained support for Ukraine as demonstrated by regular Eurobarometer surveys. Consistent support for various kinds of aid ranges from 58% (military support) to well above 85% (humanitarian support). In addition, 76% of European respondents agree that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a threat to the security of the EU. The Kremlin’s false claim that European citizens agree with Moscow is manifestly wrong.

Don’t be deceived