Moscow’s attempt to reshape the world order

Events these days illustrate the privilege autocratic rulers enjoy when they try to frame a new narrative and work on their image at home and internationally. A dominant grip on the information space, made possible by the brutal repression of independent media, and massive flooding with selective narratives can have a persuasive effect.

On Monday, we examined how Moscow portrayed the recent Munich Security Conference. A recent meeting between Russian and US representatives was portrayed as a significant diplomatic success in Russia, and now the demands keep flowing from Moscow in an obvious effort to pump up its negotiating position and keep Ukraine and Europe away from the conversations.

Russia smells the ‘good old days’

Russian state outlets seek to reinvigorate the ‘good old days’ when the USSR and the United States were dominant and responsible for world order. The narrative suggests that Ukraine created a security problem and was hijacked by ‘neo-Nazis’ and warmongers across Europe as well as by former US presidents Obama and Biden. Now, Moscow and Washington, Putin and Trump, have to fix the situation, suppressing the cold fact that Putin himself decided to create the situation: to invade Crimea in 2014, start a war in Donbas, and launch a full-scale invasion three years ago, on 24 February 2022.

Deciphering Russian demands

We have seen it before, in the time leading up to the Minsk I and II agreements in 2014 and 2015: Moscow negotiates or pretends to respect agreements while simultaneously pressing ahead with military attacks.

The well-known Russian strongman language with its harsh and brutal tone is amplified to impress the opponent with an air of invincibility.

Moscow’s demands can be translated or deciphered as follows.

‘Ukraine should demilitarise and not become a NATO member’ means: Russia will reserve the possibility to re-start military action or threats thereof whenever it wishes.

‘A peacekeeping force cannot include NATO member states’ means: keep US forces far away, deepen the divide between Brussels and Washington and hope to scare away a coalition of European states willing to contribute troops.

‘President Zelenskyy is not legitimate and elections are needed in Ukraine’ means: try to oust President Zelenskyy. Make a deal between Moscow and Washington over the head of the elected Ukrainian leadership. Elections in a fragile situation are occasions to manipulate and try dividing society, limit political groups and power centres. See also our article. Some commentators portray Georgia and the change of political power in Tbilisi as an example.

‘Realities on the ground’ means: recognise Russian occupation and territorial expansion into Ukraine. Give Russian forces the breathing space to recuperate their colossal losses.

‘Build US-Russia economic relations’ is shorthand for: please, urgently lift the sanctions on Russia. The Russian economy is under strong pressure even if Moscow pretends all is manageable. There is a significant desire for a return to pre-war cooperation and breaking out of Western isolation.

See our previous deciphering of the Kremlin newspeak here.

The castle in the sky

The Kremlin’s full vision can be found in the proposals for two treaties which Russia presented at the end of December 2021, one between Russia and the US and one between Russia and NATO. Both were blunt demands for accepting Russian spheres of interest extending across Europe, for a 1997 situation, pre-NATO enlargement. We analysed the Kremlin ideas here. They proved to be pretexts for starting the full-scale invasion.

Also on our disinfo radar this week

EU citizens will eat worms due to anti-Russian sanctions: No. A silly but remarkable claim spread by TASS, one of the main Russian state wire services. It seeks to create an impression of sanctions hurting Europeans more than Russians. Domestically in Russia, this narrative is important for maintaining the image of Putin as a master of managing all affairs and thus prevent criticism from within. Towards European audiences, the claim is yet another attempt to undermine European governments’ policy towards Russia.

Angelina Jolie was paid $20 million by USAID to go to Lviv: No, this is a fabricated story, but good for clickbait on pro-Kremlin platforms. The story is false and the video was not produced by or spread via E! News . E! News confirmed to AFP that the video ‘is not authentic and did not originate from E! News’. Not published on the E! News website or E! News social media accounts. There is no evidence that USAID funded the trips to Ukraine of the celebrities. It illustrates how manipulation works: take a hot topic, invent an emotion-trigger story based on famous names you want to discredit. Claim the information comes from a credible outlet and let it travel in several languages with the help of fake accounts. Voila. By the time these false claims are debunked, the first lies have set the agenda and moved on.

You, dear reader, will not believe the lie, but others might. These emotional stories leave a small doubt in the mind called the ‘sleeper effect’. Meanwhile, Russian forces attack civilian targets in Ukraine when the attention is distracted. We all need to select a healthy ‘information diet’ and steer clear of the clickbait junk.

The Moldovan leadership is not interested in ending the war in Ukraine: Also false. A misrepresentation and pure lie even if the writer of the claim knows better. The real quote from President Maia Sandu at the Munich Security Conference is straightforward: ‘No one wants peace more than Ukraine. We in Moldova want peace too – we want a peace that is lasting and that will keep us in the free world’.

Don’t be deceived!